China’s exports, whether by rail, road, sea or air, have seen huge growth in the past few years. They increased by almost 30% in dollar terms in 2021. But in April this year, China’s export growth tapered to only 3.9% over the previous year, in dollar terms.
The 3.9% expansion reported by China’s customs agency on May 9th was more nominal than real. More detailed statistics, published later in the month, are likely to show that the price of China’s exports rose by perhaps 8% or more in April, compared with a year earlier, according to ubs, a bank. If so, the volume of China’s exports must have shrunk last month.
These price increases have raised fears that a locked-down China will exacerbate inflation in its trading partners, particularly America. The alarm is often exaggerated. Goods made (in whole or in part) in China made up less than 2% of American personal consumer spending in 2017, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. China’s covid-related bottlenecks could have larger ripple effects, say by allowing rival manufacturers to raise their prices. Most American inflation, however, is made in America.
Indeed, China’s exports may be more a victim of America’s woes than a cause of them. America’s slowdown is contributing to weaker demand for China’s goods on top of self-inflicted disruptions to their supply. Surveys of purchasing managers have revealed falling export orders every month so far this year. And China’s official statistics showed declining exports last month of the computers and household appliances that were in such high demand when the West too was locking itself down. Not everything is slowing, however. China’s imports from Russia have continued to grow since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as sanctions have hindered Russia’s access to Western markets. The offerings included 50 carriage-loads of barley, carried to Shandong province on a Qilu train.
