India’s exports to the US expected to drop by $5.76 billion in 2025: GTRI

India’s merchandise exports to the US are projected to decrease by $5.76 billion in 2025 due to the implementation of higher American tariffs, according to an analysis by the think tank GTRI. Exports from sectors such as marine products, gold, and electrical and electronic goods are expected to be the most affected. However, India’s strong competitive position in certain segments, including textiles, apparel, ceramics, inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, could mitigate some of the losses.

Beginning April 9, an additional 26% duty will be imposed on Indian goods, excluding pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and certain energy products. A baseline tariff of 10% will be in effect from April 5 to April 8. GTRI estimates a 6.41% drop in India’s exports to the US in 2025, based on trade data and updated tariff schedules. In 2024, India had exported goods worth $89.81 billion to the US.

Sectors facing the steepest declines include fish and crustaceans (20.2%), iron and steel products (18%), diamonds and gold (15.3%), vehicle parts (12.1%), and electrical and electronic goods (12%). Additional product categories such as plastics, carpets, petroleum products, organic chemicals, and machinery may also experience downturns.

The study also analyzed the competitive landscape among major exporters like China, Mexico, and Canada. Despite the tariffs, energy products—such as petroleum, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals—are exempt from country-specific duties, as are copper exports. These high-value items contributed $20.4 billion (22.7%) to India’s 2024 exports to the US and will only face the standard Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff. Industrial goods like steel, aluminum, automobiles, and auto parts, representing $2.2 billion (2.5%) of India’s US exports, will continue to face a 25% tariff without changes to their MFN status.